A Critical Evaluation of Post-Normal Science's role in Climate Change Modelling and Political Decision-Making
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18270/rt.v13i1.1295Palabras clave:
Post-Normal Science, Climate Change, Complexity, Modelling, Policy, UncertaintyResumen
Earth System Modelling is a modern approach for studying the complexity of the world and has become integral to the environmental and climate change discourse. It has enabled the possibility of research into areas previously unreachable and has led to the discovery of some of the most complex phenomena on the planet such as Chaos Theory. The exponential growth of computer capabilities has led to an impressive advance in the recognition of complexity and uncertainty. It has also opened up the path for a new scientific paradigm, post normal science. Decisions increasingly have to be made within this framework. Incomplete or poorly understood information provided by models is, despite modelling uncertainties, increasingly dictating the frontiers and interface of science and politics. Modelling, like any tool, has its advantages and disadvantages. This paper critically evaluates, through a comprehensive literature review, some of the benefits, limitations and controversies that surround models and questions their utilisation in the scientific quest for “truth” within the climate change debate. It also looks into the future of climate modelling and post normal science based decision making for a sustainable world.
Descargas
Referencias bibliográficas
Funtowicz, S and Ravetz, J (2008) Post-Normal Science International Society for Ecological Economics, Encyclopaedia of the Earth http://www.eoearth.org/article/Post-Normal_Science
Deblonde, M, Barriat, VA and Warrant, F (2005) SPIRE – Science and Precaution in Interactive Risk Evaluation Belgian Science Policy http://www.belspo.be/belspo/organisation/publ/pub_ostc/OA/rOA01_en.pdf
Neugebauer, H and Simmer, C (2003) Dynamics of multiscale earth systems Springer
Alcamo, J, Floerke, M, Schaldach, R and Weiss, M (2008) Earth Systems Modelling: New Insights into Revista de Tecnología ¦ Journal of Technology ¦ Volumen 13 ¦ Número 1 ¦ Págs. 28-38 ¦ 35 A Critical Evaluation of Post-Normal Science's role in Climate Change Modelling and Political Decision-Making the Future of Water, Land and their Interactions Global Change NewsLetter No. 71 May 2008
Oldfield, F (2005) Environmental Change: Key Issues and Alternative Perspectives Cambridge University Press
Heavens, N. G., Ward, D. S. & Natalie, M. M. (2013) Studying and Projecting Climate Change with Earth System Models. Nature Education Knowledge 4(5):4
Rollinson, H (2007) Early Earth systems: a geochemical approach Wiley-Blackwell
Leffelaar, P (1998) On systems analysis and simulation of ecological processes: with examples in CSMP, FST, and FORTRAN Springer
Swinback, R, Shutiaev, P and Lahoz, W (2003) Data assimilation for the earth system Springer
Frigg, R Hartmann,S and Imbert,C (2009). Special Issue Models and Simulation. Synthese, 169.
Fox Keller, E.(2003) Models, simulation and ‘computerexperiments’ [Within] Radder H (Ed.), The Philosophy of Scientific Experimentation p 198–215 Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh UniversityPress
Johnson, A (2006).The Shape of Molecules to Come [Within] Lenhard, J et al G. Simulation: pragmatic construction of reality. Sociology oft he sciences yearbook 25 Springer p 25–39.
Kiehl, J and Ramanathan, V (2006) Frontiers of climate modelling Cambridge University Press
Dahan , A. (2007). Les Modeles du futur .Changement Climatique et scenarios economique: enjeux scientifique et politiques. La Decouverte. [Within] Heymann, M (2010) Understanding and Misunderstanding
Computer Simulation: The Case of Atmospheric and Climate Science- An Introduction Studies in History and Philosophy in Modern Physics Volume 41, Issue 3, p 193-200
Macleod, C (2010) What Can we Learn from Systems Based Approaches: From Systems Biology to Earth System Science International Environmental Modelling and Software Society 2010 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software:
Modelling for Environment’s Sake
O’Neil, A and Steenman-Clark, L (2002) The Computational Challenges of Earth-System Science Philosophical Transaction of the Royal Society 360 p 1267-1275
Schellnhuber, H (1999) Earth System Analysis and the Second Copernican Revolution Nature Vol 402
Thompson, R and Perry (1997) Applied Climatology: Principles and Practice Routledge
Schoeberl, M, Raymond, C Rood, R and Hildebrand, P (2003) The Earth System Model NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory http://esto.nasa.gov/conferences/igarss03/papers/MO091340_Schoeberl_ESM.pdf
Lenton, T (2002) Testing Gaia: The Effect of Life on Earth’s Habitability and Regulation Kluwer Academic Publishers
Watson, A and Lovelock, J (1983) Biological Homeostasis of the Global Environment: The Parable of Daisyworld Tellus 35B p 284-289
Lovelock, J (2000) Gaia: a new look at life on earth Oxford University Press
Fletcher, C amd Miller, C (2006) Operationalizing Resilence in Australian and New Zealan Agroecosystems http://www.isssbrasil.usp.br/pdfs/2006-355.pdf
Van der Sluijs, P (1998) Anchoring Amid Uncertainty On the Management of Uncertainties in Risk Assessment of Anthropogenic Climate Change Social Studies of Science Vol 28, 2 p 291-323
USNRC – United States National Research Council (U.S.). (1993) Committee on Status and Research Objectives in the Solid-Earth Sciences Solid-earth sciences and society: a critical assessment National Academies Press
Gallopin, C (2004) What Kind of System of Science (and Technology) is Needed to Support the Quest for Sustainable Development? [Within] Schellnhuber Earth system analysis for sustainability MIT Press
Beerling, D (2007) The Emerald Planet: How Plants Changed Earth’s History Oxford University Press
Wainwright, J and Mulligan, M (2004) Environmental modelling: finding simplicity in complexity John Wiley and Sons
Heymann, M (2010) Understanding and Misunderstanding Computer Simulation: The Case of Atmospheric and Climate Science- An Introduction Studies in History and Philosophy in Modern Physics Volume 41, Issue 3, p 193-200
Klemes, V (1997) Of carts and horses in hydrological modeling. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 1: 43-49
Washington, W, Buja, L and Craig, A (2009) The Computational Future for Climate and Earth System Models: on the Path to Petaflop and Beyond Philosophical Transaction of the Royal Society 367 p 833-846
Bhattacharyya, S, Cameron-Smith, P and Bergmann, D (2010) Atmospheric Impact of Large Methane Emissions and the Gulf Oil Spill NASA/ Smithsonian
Stute, M Clement, A and Lohmann, G (2001) Global Climate Models: Past, Present and Future Procedures of the National Academy of Science, USA 98 (19) p 10529-10530
Hemingway, K., Cutts, and . Pérez-Dominguez, R (2008) Managed Realignment in the Humber Estuary, UK. Institute of Estuarine & Coastal
Studies (IECS), University of Hull, UK. Report produced as part of the European Interreg IIIB HARBASINS project
Hollingsworth, A, Uppala, S, Klinker, E et al (2005) The Transformation of Earth-System Observations innto Information of Socio-Economic Value in GEOSS Quaterly Journal of the Royal Meterological Society 131 (613) p 3493-3512
Mackinnon, I (2008) Indonesia launches tsunami warning system The Guardian 11 Nov 2008 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/11/indonesia- tsunami-warning-system
Murtugudde, R (2009) Regional Earth System Prediction: A Decision-Making Tool for Sustainability? In Press
Clark, W and Holliday, L (2006) Linking Knowledge with Action for Sustainable Development: The Role of Program Management - Summary of a Workshop National Academies Press
Mitchell R, Romero, P (2003) Institutions, science, and technology in the transition to sustainability. [Within] Earth System Analysis for Sustainability. Edited by Schellnhuber HJ, Crutzen PJ,Clark WC,
Claussen M, Held H. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press p :387-408.
Saloranta, T (2001) Post-Normal Science and the Global Climate Change Issue Climatic Change 50: p 395–404
Glover, L (2010) Postmodern Climate Change Routledge p 135
Friedrichs, J (2011) ‘Peak energy and climate change: the double bind of post‐normal science’, Futures 43 (4): 469‐477
Claussen, M (2001) Earth System Models Institut für Meteorologie, FU-Berlin http://www.mpimet.mpg. de/fileadmin/staff/claussenmartin/publications/claussen_esm_understanding_spring_01.pdf
Cox, P and Nakicenovic, N (2004) Assesing and Simulating the Altered Functioning of the Earth System and the Anthropocene [Within] Schellnhuber Earth system analysis for sustainability MIT Press
Stahl, B (2008) Information systems: critical perspectives Taylor & Francis
Firor, J (1998) ‘Human Motives Sometimes Mar Models’, Boulder Daily Camera (25 October): 12F [Wthin] Lahsen, M (2005) Seductive Simulations? Uncertainty Distribution Around Climate Models Social Studies of Science 35: 895
Edwards, P (1996) Global Comprehensive Models in Politics and Policymaking Climate Change32 (2) P 149-61
Lanzerotti (1999) Position Statement Adopted on Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases AGU Committee on Public Affairs http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/policy/lanzer.html [Accessed December 2007]
DeWeese, T (2006) Fanatics, heretics and the truth about Global Warming MitchNews 30/05/06 http://www.michnews.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view. cgi/416/12914 [Accessed December 2007]
Lahsen, M (2005) Seductive Simulations? Uncertainty
Distribution round Climate Models Social Studies of Science 35: 895
Steffen, W, Bolin, B, Cox, P, Crutzen, P et al (2004) Group Report: Earth System Dynamics in the Anthropocene p313-340 [Within] Schellnhuber Earth system analysis for sustainability MIT Press
Lomborg, B (2001) The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World Cambridge University Press
NASA- NASA Advisory Council. Earth System Sciences Committee, United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (1988) Earth system science: a closer view National Academies
Lupo, A (2007) The Complexity of Atmospheric Modelling Ice Cap http://icecap.us/images/ uploads/complexityatmosmodel2.pdf
Spencer, R (2010) Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies That Hurt the Poor Encounter Books
Houghton et al (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Houghton et al p 99-181 Cambridge University Press http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/edu/dees/V1003/readings/IPCC%202001%20TAR/WG1_TAR-FRONT.pdf
Reichter, T and Kim, J (2008) How Well do Coupled Models Simulate Today’s Climate? Bulletin of Atmospheric Metrological Society 89 p 303-311
Edwards, P (2001) ‘Representing the Global Atmosphere: Computer Models, Data, and Knowledge About Climate Change’,[Within] Miller , C and. Edwards, P (eds), Changing the Atmosphere: Expert Knowledge and Environmental Governance (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press): 31–65.
Guillemot, H (2010) Connections Between Simulations and Observation in Climate Computer Modelling. Scientists’ Practices and Bottom-Up Epistemology Lessons An Introduction Studies in History and Philosophy in Modern Physics Volume 41, Issue 3 p 242-252
Carter, R .M (2007) The Myth of Dangerous Human- Caused Climate Change.Paper for: The AUS/IMM New Leaders Conference http://icecap.us/images/uploads/200705-03AusIMMcorrected.pdf [Accessed December 2007]
Claussen, Mysak, L, Weaver, A, Crucifix, M, Fichefet, T et al (2002) Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity: Closing the Gap in the Spectrum of Climate System Models Climate Dynamics 18 p 579-586
Farber, D (2007) Climate Models A User’s Guide UC Berkeley Public Law Research Paper No. 1030607
Pope, V (2007) Models “Key to Climate Forecasts” BBC News 2 Feb 07 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6320515.stm
Betts, A (2009) Land-Surface-Atmosphere Coupling in Observations and Models Journal of Advanced Modelling of Earth System Vol 1 (4) http://james.agu.org/index.php/ JAMES/article/view/v1n4/v1n4HTML
Descargas
Publicado
Número
Sección
Licencia
PUBLICIDAD
La Revista de Tecnología – Journal of Technology ISSN 1692-1399 invita a dirigir sus órdenes publicitarias a la dirección electrónica tecjournal.uelbosque@gmail.com ; revistatecnologia@unbosque.edu.co, a romerojaimea@unbosque.edu.co.
ADVERTISING
Revista de Tecnología – Journal of Technology ISSN 1692-1399 invites to advertise by inquiring sending an e-mail to revistatecnologia@unbosque.edu.co, or romerojaimea@unbosque.edu.co
FORMA DE ADQUISICIÓN
Compra, canje o suscripción.Purchase, exchange or subcriptions.Acheter, echange o de abonnement.
Suscripciones y solicitudes de canje.Subscriptions or Exchange. – A besoine D’echange.
Avenida Carrera 9 131A-02 Edificio Fundadores, Piso 3 – ala sur Oficina de Publicaciones de la Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad El Bosque, Bogotá D.C., Colombia.Tel. + 571 648 9000 ext. 1385 – Fax + 571 625 2030revistatecnologia@unbosque.edu.cotecjournal.uelbosque@gmail.com